The Next Senator from New York Will Be. . .
This morning, Barack Obama officially announced Senator Hillary Clinton will be nominated to serve as Secretary of State in the new administration. Assuming Senator Clinton is approved by the Senate for the cabinet position, Governor Paterson will appoint someone to fill her seat.
And so the speculation has begun.
Some of the potential appointees include Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez, Congresswoman Nita Lowey, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Caroline Kennedy, Congressman Brian Higgins and, believe it or not, Mayor Byron Brown.
There hasn't been a US Senator from Western New York for decades, though apparently Governor Paterson is sympathetic to this absence. When asked about appointing an 'Upstate' pol, Paterson responded "It's very important because ... there is history and familiarity that people have who come from different parts of the state or have unique backgrounds that we'd like to see in government."
While Governor Paterson has made pronouncements that he'd like to be sensitive to racial diversity as well as geographic diversity, doing so would fly in the face of the most obvious candidate - Attorney General Cuomo. Indeed, Paterson needs to weigh carefully his desire for diversity with the fact that whoever he appoints will face a statewide election in 2010 to hold the Senate seat for the final 2 years of the term and will be forced to win another statewide election in 2012 to receive another 6 year term. While there is some talk that Paterson will appoint a 'placeholder' candidate who will simply serve out the next two years and not run again in 2010, that approach would likely give Republicans the best chance at capturing the seat in 2010 or 2012.
Of course, upstate candidates haven't won election to the Senate for three fundamental reasons - population, fundraising and name recognition. Very few downstaters have heard of Brian Higgins or Byron Brown, and it will likely take $70M to successfully run statewide campaigns in 2010 and 2012. To put that in perspective, Congressman Higgins raised $1.2M for his 2006 campaign. Given that, it seems hard to imagine Higgins or Brown could raise anywhere near that much money for a Senate run, and while the 2 year stint in the Senate would help with name recognition, other notable Democrats and every notable Republican would immediately begin preparing for the 2010/2012 elections.
It's appealing to think that a local politician could get this appointment, but given the political realities, it seems very unlikely. Congressman Higgins has an impressive track record and solid approval ratings, but there are too many structural disadvantages for him to overcome. And since Mayor Brown seems to be constantly engaged in small-time internecine political wars (including pushing to have Harvey Garrett removed from a local non-profit board), it's hard to imagine him being sworn in on the floor of the US Senate.
But let the speculation begin. . .
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carlmalone
We'll I must say these chicken thingys sure do taste good with their hot sauce on them, Someone please tell Steve Casey to come in and write something for me to say, otherwise I need to go impersonate Joe Traver
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thinker
Just say no to Milquetoast Brown. He could be my neighbor and I'd still say he's a horrible leader. And leader is what NYS (and Buffalo too which it is not getting with Brown) need. Not a status quo follower.
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sonyactivision
Brown would be a huge mistake. He has not evolved quickly enough to be an effective mayor, much less a US Senator. Higgins is better known down south and people like him.
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chrishawley
A progressive mayor from a Western New York city on the rebound, who has executed a stable, responsible city budget without raising taxes? What's not to like?
Mayor Brown would make a fine Senator!
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Buffalo21stcentury
Personally I think it should be a constitutional amendment that upstate gets representation in the Governors office and the Senate.
The NYS Senate and Assembly are proportional...but everyone knows that downstate monies buy upstate elections and what they cant buy....they control through majorities...and other political mechanisms.
It used to be that if the Governor was from downstate that they appointed an upstate Lt Governor. It used to be that there was 1 senator from uptate and 1 senator from downstate
Brown would be horrible as a senator because he cant even handle being a mayor except creating bumble headed minority positions for his buddies as Lt Mayors and deputy mayors and etc.
Higgins or that guy that ran against Hillary are the best choices....and yes I adamantly oppose appointing a woman or minority just for their gender or race. {deleted}
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allfit
We haven't had a Senator for the past two years and her work for the previous years is debatable.
It shouldn't matter if the vacancy is filled by someone from upstate or downstate, as long as we have ample representation in the elite 100.
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Joshua
...and when is the next mayoral election?
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blackrocklifer
allfit doesn't like Hillary Clinton.
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Keith
How about picking the most competent person regardless of race or gender? I thought when Obama was elected we were supposed to be past all of that crap.
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meanoldman
i think any ancestor of groucho marx is a great choice. let him learn to be mayor first,he hasn't even been in this position long enough to develop as a leader!! ( he does look like groucho ! )
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onestarmartin
LOL....What would be worse, Brown as Mayor or Senator, either way you F**ked! [the picture with the chicken wing is classic by the way]
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BloCity
I really hope it is Higgins, and given the ridiculous incumbent reelection rate in this country i wouldn't worry about that.
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AtwaterLouse
Just because he isn't as awful a choice as Brown, doesn't mean Higgins has any real chance. The press downstate would eat Paterson alive if that's his choice. I guarantee the NY Post or Daily News, or both, would have a screaming headline: "Senator Who-ggins???". (Which I'd love to see, so everyone please call Paterson and tell him to choose Higgins.) Then the articles and columns would be even more brutal than the headline. He will jsut seem like a weak choice outside of WNY, and that's where most voters are.
Paterson has no political reason to seek more popularity around Buffalo. If Higgins was a great candidate - like if he was in a top leadership role in the House and had national stature, or if he had a very stong power base beyond WNY, then it might be different. I think he's considered an ok or better congressman from a politically weak part of the state. If Paterson makes a lame choice unpopular downstate it could encourage Cuomo to challenge him for gov.
The only "upstate" real possibility it seems is Gillibrand the congresswoman from Hudson area - looks like some some star power there. It could be her, but if I were Paterson and had his political beliefs I'd appoint a more powerful downstater - Cuomo or Suozzi.
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AtwaterLouse
Didn't most of you on Buffalo Rising despise Higgins not long ago about Route 5 - many were saying it's the worst thing to happen for generations to come - blocking off water, building walls, all that? Billboards, protests? Now most are rooting for him? Times change fast. It won't bother me if he's senator. He might be more moderate than Cuomo. Higgins supported the Patriot Act extension when GWB asked for it, and I won't be surprised if that's another thing Obama decides isn't such a bad idea after all and asks Congress to extend it again. But politically there's just no chance Paterson will choose Higgins. It would be all risk and no benefit.
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whynot
Hillary Who??? She was a Senator of New York? I thought she was just a carpet bagging career politician, who knew?
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Mariner
I am cheering for Brown to get that spot. No doubt he will lose the election in 2010 or 12 but it would get him out of Buffalo. Maybe then we could get some fresh, progressive thinking in City Hall. Probably not going to happen, but it is nice to dream!
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gaustad
Brown has done absolutely nothing for this city. There is NO progress here.
Drive down Main st from University plaza to down town. Buffalo looks like Beruit.
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EastBuffalo
I think Mayor Brown has done a good job as Mayor. He handled the October storm well. There have been nice infrastructure upgrades in the city. Downtown development is moving at a good pace. There are security cameras in bad neighborhoods. He has done a good job.
(I think the picture above has stereotypical undertones)
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EastBuffalo
I think Mayor Brown has done a good job as Mayor. He handled the October storm well. There have been nice infrastructure upgrades in the city. Downtown development is moving at a good pace. There are security cameras in bad neighborhoods. He has done a good job.
(I think the picture above has stereotypical undertones)
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